全球經濟不平衡的實質在於，少數最先進國家憑藉知識、創意和發達的服務業牢牢佔領著經濟金融的制高點。綜合競爭力最強的國家，同時也是負債最多的國家。然而，絕大多數發展中國家仍然受困于資本短缺。這正是此次金融危機的根源。

在日益激烈的國際競爭中，成本、工資和地租的差異越來越讓位於人力資本、市場條件、法治環境和生態狀況等因素的區別。因此，國際競爭很大程度上是一國自己與自己的競爭。例如，中國需要提高服務業比重，降低製造業比重，而印度卻正好相反；德國和日本需要從缺乏競爭力的工業生産中退出，新興市場經濟體正好有條件承接；美國和英國需要向更先進的非物質生産主導的經濟類型轉變。

除了不同之外，在2011年各國還面臨著許多相同的課題。例如，我們共有一個地球，需要共同應對生態危機和能源危機；發展中國家的城市化，發達國家的再城市化，可以互相借鑒；各國都有自己的教育問題，可以取長補短；就業更是大家共同的經濟難題，能夠相互學習交流。如果傳統的政治、安全和意識形態觀念能夠被超越，我們就會創造空前的共贏。

變革必將到來

在社會、資源和環境方面付出巨大代價的條件下，中國長期保持著很高的儲蓄率和投資率，而且在最近一些年裏已經成為最大的資本凈流出國家。中國無疑必須調整經濟結構，強化人力資本，減少環境損毀，使增長建立在技術進步和制度創新的基礎上。這意味著經常項目順差的相對規模會逐步縮小。儘管如此，中國在不久的將來很有可能會超過日本而成為最大的債權國，正如其實物資本存量早晚會趕上美國一樣。

對於中國不斷增長的金融力量，國際上一直不無擔憂。有人甚至懷疑它會被用於政治或軍事目的。事實上中國外匯資産的存量和結構，特別是央行儲備佔據70％的份額，在極大程度上是被動形成的。中國需要從國外進口更多先進技術和設備，引進更多人才和經驗，開展更高層次的跨國研發合作；中國的企業願意攜帶著自己的産品、技術和資金去亞洲、非洲、拉丁美洲任何國家；印度、巴西、東歐和俄羅斯實際上都迫切需要中國的基礎設施建設能力；甚至北美、西歐和澳洲也有許多礦山、工廠和農場也歡迎中國投資者去增加投入。遺憾的是，由於種種有形和無形的束縛，數以千億美元計的中國資本未能直接用於改進世界的效率和福利。

自由兌換，打造共贏

立人才能立己。中國是投資和貿易自由化最堅定的支援者，也是世界經濟金融重建最富建設性的力量。中國與世界銀行及其他區域性開發銀行之間，在協調融資和投資方面存在著很大潛力。金融市場的雙向開放會進一步擴大，目前海外投資者在中國金融業的權益已佔15％左右，中國的銀行和保險公司也願意逐步拓展國際市場。

中國完全可能更積極地參與國際貨幣金融體系改革，支援跨國監管交流，建立和完善世界性的最後貸款人制度。在此過程中，人們會發現，合力推動人民幣成為國際貨幣，對於解決現階段困擾國際社會的金融和貿易難題，具有實質性的意義。

附：原文：China's balancing hand

The crux of the current global imbalance is that only a minority of the most advanced countries possess the knowledge, innovation and flourishing service sectors that will enable them to enjoy strong economic and financial prospects. These same countries are also the world’s largest debtors. Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of developing countries suffer a shortage of capital. This, at root, is the origin of the recent financial crisis.

In increasingly tense international competition, differences in costs, wages and land prices are becoming less important than factors such as human capital, the law, market regulation and the environment. For this reason, international competition is to a large extent a country’s competition with itself. For example, China must raise the service sector’s share of the economy and lower that of manufacturing, while for India the reverse will be true.

Others, too, must change. Germany and Japan need to cede to the emerging economies industries in which they are no longer competitive. America and Britain need to move their economies still further into sophisticated services.

But apart from their differences, countries in 2011 will face many common issues: we have only one Earth and we need to cope together with the crises of energy and the environment; with urbanisation in the developing world and reurbanisation in the developed world. Every country has its own problems of education and all could help resolve them by learning from each other; employment, too, is a common economic challenge and countries could pool their experience. If we can transcend traditional concepts of politics, security and ideology, we should be able to create unprecedented opportunities that benefit the many and not just the few.

Times must change

By paying huge prices in social, resource and environmental terms, China has sustained very high savings and investment rates for a long period. In recent years it has become the world’s largest net capital exporter. China undoubtedly must adjust its economic structure, strengthen its human capital and reduce its environmental impact so that its growth can be built on technological advancement and institutional innovation. This implies a gradual shrinking of the relative size of its current-account surplus. Yet, even so, China will probably surpass Japan as the largest creditor in the near future, just as its physical capital stock will sooner or later catch up with that of the United States.

There has been no lack of fear around the world about the relentless growth of China’s financial strength. Some believe my country will use this power to further its political or military ends. But the fact is that to a large extent the stock and portfolio of China’s foreign-currency assets are formed passively, particularly the 70% share in central-bank reserves.

China needs to import more advanced technology and equipment from abroad, bring in more talent and experience and co-operate in transnational R&D. Chinese enterprises are willing to take their products, technology and capital to any country—and India, Brazil, eastern Europe and Russia are all in urgent need of China’s capability in infrastructure construction. In North America, western Europe and Australia, there are many mines, factories and farms which would welcome funds from Chinese investors. What is regrettable is that, owing to tangible and intangible constraints of one kind or another, hundreds of billions of dollars in Chinese capital cannot be used directly to improve world efficiency and welfare.

Free exchange for everyone’s good

“You cannot get yourself established unless you help others to get established,” as the Chinese saying goes. China is a staunch supporter of liberalisation in investment and trade and is also a constructive force in global economic and financial restructuring. There is great potential to be had with China co-ordinating financing and investments with the World Bank and other regional development banks. The two-directional opening of its financial market will widen further, given that overseas investors currently have about 15% of the equity of China’s financial sector and given that Chinese banks and insurance companies are willing to make staged forays into the global market.

It is entirely possible for China to participate more actively in the reform of international financial systems, in 2011, in support of transnational regulatory exchanges and in setting up and improving a system serving as the global lender of last resort. During this process, it will be discovered that jointly promoting the yuan as an international, fully convertible currency will help greatly to solve financial and trade problems of the kind that now vex the world.